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TGIF UFC 307 Main Card Picks
UFC 307 kicks off October with two title fights and a possible women’s bantamweight contender match-up on the main card.
My picks aren’t what they used to be, but these are my picks for UFC 307:
Alex Pereira (c) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
I know a lot of people take issue with this matchup but Pereira is in his Mike Tyson era right now. Most of the time I don’t think it matters who he is facing, he will probably win. However, if anyone has a puncher’s chance, it’s Rountree. I think his power is on par with Pereira’s and if he can impose some grappling he’s got a chance to win this.
Still, I’m picking Pereira.
Raquel Pennington (c) vs. Julianna Peña
I forget that Pennington is the champion sometimes.
I know Peña’s had some injuries but she seems to want to fight regardless of what keeps her out of the cage. If she grabs the title from Pennington, I think that paves the way to make a new rivalry between her and Kayla Harrison should Harrison get past Viera on this card.
Pick: Peña
José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
You see Jose Aldo’s name and you instantly want to pick him, but he’s 38 and past his prime. Bautista can likely copy Merab Dvalishvili’s playbook and pick up a win by decision here. Granted, as my co-host Matt Hawkins on the Coast-2-Coast Combat Hour pointed out, Dvalishvili could not take down Aldo, but the aggression was enough to earn him a win.
Pick: Bautista
Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison
This is the most interesting fight on the card for me.
Both women have backgrounds in Judo. Granted, Harrison is probably the better Judo-ka but when two grapplers face off, I think we get to see who’s striking is better. This will be the test Harrison needs since the Holm fight was kind of a fluke. Harrison might have a strength advantage in the clinch and grappling exchanges too, so I’m leaning toward Harrison but I won’t be surprised if Vieira takes it.
Another note from when we did our picks on the podcast, Vieira was a +600 underdog so if you like to gamble, that might not be a bad bet. Harrison was a -900 favorite so if you do bet on Harrison, better to bet on how she wins than the money line.
Note on the odds listed above, they were from the UFC’s website which uses Draftkings odds. If you’d like to play, please use my affiliate link to sign up here.
Pick: Harrison
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
Good opening bout.
Both men are coming off of wins, and can finish fights. I know Holland’s a fan-favorite fighter but there’s a method to his madness too. I think he can do what he does here and win through shenanigans. Although, another thing Hawkins pointed out is he does fight a lot and that can be good or bad depending on how his body handles it which could give Dolidze the edge. Still, I’m going with Holland
Pick: Holland
Again, use this information at your own risk.
My picks used to be better prior to the ESPN era of the UFC but I still think I’m better than average most days. If you want to hear the podcast with Hawkin’s other picks for UFC 307 be sure and check out this week’s podcast on Spotify:
